Novametrics Free until 4 Dec

Free Black Friday calculator, until 4 December

Black Friday can make you money and still empty your account.

Ads and product costs leave your account the day you sell. The Black Friday payouts land in December. The free Q4 Budget Calculator shows how much cash you need to carry your November goal until that money arrives.

Create my free account & open the calculator

Email and a password, no card. Confirm your email in this browser and the calculator opens. Already have an account? Same button, then log in.

  • ✓Free until 4 December
  • ✓No card needed
  • ✓€, $, £ or kr
Example numbers
Q4 Budget Calculator
Free until 4 Dec
Goal → Cash neededCash → Realistic goal
November goal€100,000
Ad spend50%
Product cost35%
Payout delay4 days
Cash you need available (your buffer)€18,869
Your account, Nov 1 to Dec 3vs. Nov 1
€0 lowest: Nov 30
Nov 1BF weekendDec 3
€50,000Ad budget
€35,000Product cost
€15,000Expected profit (before payment fees)

Why profitable stores run dry

You pay for Black Friday on Friday. The money comes back in December.

Ad spend and product costs go out the day you sell. Shopify pays you days later. On a normal day that gap is small, and your account keeps growing. Over the Black Friday weekend you sell several times a normal day, while the payouts coming in are still from the slower days before it.

Nov 1 to Nov 26The account builds a cushionPayouts run a little ahead of what you spend. Sales grow toward Black Friday.
Nov 27 to Nov 30The biggest spend of the yearIn the calculator's model, each day sells more than four times an average November day. The account is lowest on Nov 30.
Dec 1 to Dec 4The Black Friday money landsThe sales were real. The money just arrives after the bills it had to pay.

Dates for a 4-day payout delay. With a longer delay, the money comes back later and you need more.

The question most people plan with

"How much can I sell in November?"

You can hit that number and still run out of cash on the best weekend of the year, with ads paused exactly when they should be running.

The question that decides November

"How much cash carries me until the payouts land?"

Every November goal has a cash number: the lowest point your account reaches before the Black Friday money comes back. Know it, and have it ready before Black Friday.

The Q4 Budget Calculator

Two questions, answered with your own numbers.

Pick the question you have. Move the sliders until they match your store. The answer updates as you type.

Goal → Cash needed

"I want to do this much in November. How much cash do I need?"

Type your November revenue goal. See the buffer your account needs to carry it until the Black Friday payouts land.

Cash → Realistic goal

"I have this much cash. What goal can it carry?"

Type the cash you have available. See the highest November goal it can carry without running dry.

You enter

  • Your November goal or your available cash
  • Average order value and currency
  • Ad spend as % of revenue (shown as ROAS too)
  • Product cost as % of revenue
  • Payout delay, 1 to 14 days
  • Whether you have a Meta credit line

You get

  • The cash buffer you need, or the goal your cash can carry
  • When your account is lowest and when it's back above zero
  • Ad budget and product cost for the month
  • Expected profit, before payment fees
  • Orders needed, per day on average and per day over the Black Friday weekend

Every assumption is on the page

Sales build up: October about 15% slower than a normal November day, November growing toward Black Friday. The Black Friday weekend is about 40% of the month. You keep November's profit in the account. Products are paid to the supplier when the order comes in. A 10% safety margin is added. Payment fees and refunds are not included.

Worked example

Same store, same goal. Only the payout delay changes.

A store aiming for €100,000 in November. The plan is profitable either way. What changes is how long the account has to wait for its money.

Goal €100,000Ad spend 50% (2.0 ROAS)Product cost 35%Average order €50No credit line

Payout after 4 days

€18,869

Cash needed. The account is lowest on Nov 30 and back above zero around Dec 3.

Payout after 14 days

€25,114

Cash needed. Still lowest on Nov 30, but the account stays below zero until around Dec 13.

The account, Nov 1 to mid December (vs. Nov 1, before the 10% safety margin) 4-day payout   14-day payout
€0 BF weekend −€17,154 −€22,831
Nov 1Nov 15Nov 30Dec 3Dec 13
€85,000November costs (ads €50,000 + product €35,000)
€15,000Expected profit, before payment fees
2,000Orders needed, about 67 a day
200 a dayOrders over the Black Friday weekend
The buffer is not your November costs.Payouts from ongoing sales carry most of the month. The buffer only covers the days your spending runs ahead of them.
Turn it around.Same store, €10,000 in the account and a 4-day delay: the goal that cash can carry is about €53,000.
Have a Meta credit line?With a 4-day delay this store needs no extra buffer in November, if it keeps November's profit in the account. The ad bill moves to December instead.
Tony, founder of Novametrics

Who built this

Built by an operator with a finance background, who plans his own Black Fridays.

  • 15+ years in finance
  • Runs his own stores
  • Teaches at EM Academy

I spent more than 15 years in finance, as a manager, coach and educator. Today I run my own stores and teach dropshipping at EM Academy.

In finance you check the cash before you plan the growth. I first worked this calculation out for a Q4 session with my EM Academy community, because before Black Friday the question that matters isn't how much you can sell. It's how much cash it takes to get there without pausing the ads on the best weekend of the year.

So I built the answer into Novametrics, the profit dashboard I made for my own stores, and opened it up for free until 4 December.

TonyFounder, Novametrics · EM Academy

Know your number before Black Friday.

The Q4 Budget Calculator is free until 4 December. After that it's part of the Tools plan.

Create my free account & open the calculator

Calculator didn't open? That happens when the confirmation link opens in another browser, for example inside your mail app. Log in at novametrics.app and go to Tools > Q4 Budget Calculator.

  1. 1. Free accountEmail and a password. No card needed.
  2. 2. ConfirmOpen the confirmation email in this browser. The calculator opens.
  3. 3. Your numberType your November goal and see your cash buffer.